Abstract 12087: Improving Characterization of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms by Modeling Thrombosis

Abstract

Introduction: In seniors, the prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is high (9-10%). We aim to characterize AAA growth rates (slow vs. rapid) to help inform management strategies, including individualized imaging surveillance frequency. Hypothesis: Modeling thrombosis may improve the characterization of AAAs' growth status. Methods: 3D geometrical AAA models with and without thrombosis (vessel lumen only) were generated for 70 human subjects using available contrast-enhanced CTA data. AAA growth rates were categorized as slow (< 5 mm/year) or rapid (≥ 5 mm/year) based on serial imaging. Python scripts were used to calculate geometrical parameters (83) with and without thrombosis. Patient-specific relevant health information was retrieved through a review of medical records. Support vector machine (SVM), a well-established machine learning method, was run with 10-fold cross-validation (100 iterations) to assess the predictive accuracy. Results: Among 70 AAAs studied, the ratio between rapidly-growing and slowly-growing was nearly 1:2. The combination of antihypertensive medication, coronary artery disease, juxta-aneurysm aortic size, and five geometrical parameters quantifying the extent of thrombosis provided the best accuracy for AAA's growth status. The area under receiving operating curve (AUROC) was 0.85, and total accuracy was 0.81, with 57% and 93% of rapidly- and slowly-growing AAAs correctly identified, respectively. Excluding patients with aneurysm thrombus, the AUROC and accuracy in predicting rapidly-growing AAAs decreased to 0.82 and 48%, respectively. Conclusions: machine-learning-based predictive modeling appears feasible for characterizing AAA's growth rate status. Manual aortic image segmentation, required for data analytics, is labor-intensive (on average, 1 hour). Leveraging artificial intelligence-based segmentation methodology may provide an automated solution to improve workflow and feasibility.