Abstract 12085: Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) Score Quintiles Correlate With Short and Long-Term Healthcare Costs

Abstract

Introduction: The use of the EHMRG model in the emergency department (ED) has been demonstrated to improve outcomes for patients presenting with acute heart failure (HF). It is unknown if the EHMRG model also correlates with healthcare costs, which has not been examined in other HF risk models. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that patients with higher EHMRG risk scores, i.e., sicker, would have higher costs of care in short-term (30-day) and longer-term (up to 2 year) time horizons. Methods: We examined direct costs of care from a health payer perspective using the original EHMRG derivation cohort of 11,857 patients hospitalized with acute HF in Ontario, Canada (from 2004) and linking to population-based case-costing databases. Costs were stratified by the quintiles of the EHMRG risk score (Q1 = lowest risk, Q5 = highest risk). Costs (in 2021 Canadian dollars) were categorized into hospital, physician, drug, home care, long term care (LTC), and other costs. Results: Patients in the lowest EHMRG risk quintile (Q1), compared to higher quintiles (Q2-Q5) had lower total cost of care in both the short-term ($8,113 vs $9,442, $10,557, $12,078 and $15,005, p <0.001) and long-term ($46,661 vs $55,904, $58,904, $63,286 and $64,229, p<0.001). This positive correlation between EHMRG risk quintile and cost of care was also observed for hospital costs ($26,388 [Q1] vs $35,659 [Q5], p<.0001) and LTC costs ($1,236 [Q1] vs $6,316 [Q5], p<.0001) at all time intervals, including at 2 years shown here. Physician costs and drug costs were positively correlated with EHMRG risk quintiles at 30 days (physician: $1,241 [Q1] vs $1,762 [Q5], p<0.0001; drug: $219 [Q1] vs $282 [Q5], p<.0001), and negatively correlated at 2 years (physician: $7,943 [Q1] vs $7,175 [Q5], p<.0001; drug: $4,539 [Q1] vs $4,377 [Q5], p<.0001). There was an increasing trend of costs irrespective of the formulation of the EHMRG risk score as 7-day risk quintile, 30-day risk quintile, or 30-day risk tertile. Conclusion: The EHMRG7 risk score was positively correlated with healthcare costs from 30 days to 2 years after initial ED presentation. This novel correlational study demonstrated that in the absence of an associated intervention, higher mortality risk in HF patients portends higher costs in short and long-term follow-up.