Abstract

Background: Stroke prevention with oral anticoagulation (OAC) is a mainstay therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) but is associated with increased bleeding. Identifying health determinants that contribute to this risk is essential to minimizing these adverse events and evaluating the risk benefit of OAC in an individual patient. This study examines the association between the seven cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status, physical activity, glucose, BMI, and diet) from the American Heart Association’s (AHA) Life’s Simple 7 (LS7) and major bleeding in older individuals with AF on OAC. Methods: In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we enrolled 1064 patients who were 65 years old and above, had non-valvular AF, and on OAC and followed them for 2 years. Based on AHA’s LS7 criteria, each risk factor was graded on a 3-point scale: 0 points (poor), 1 point (intermediate), and 2 points (ideal). Patients were separated into poor (0-6 pts), intermediate (7-9 pts), or ideal (10-14 pts) cohorts based on their aggregate score. Cox models were used to assess the relationship between the aggregate cohort scores and major bleeding as well as each individual cardiovascular risk factor score and major bleeding. Results: Our 1064 patients were separated into poor (n=242), intermediate (n=581) and ideal (n=241) cardiovascular health cohorts. There was a total of 95 major bleeding events, 8.93% of patients who had a major bleed, and a crude rate of 4.68 major bleeding events per 100 person-years. Compared to the ideal group, patients in the poor (HR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.13 to 4.65) and intermediate groups (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.14 to 4.14) were more likely to have a major bleeding event. Additionally, patients with poor smoking status (HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.29 to 5.98) or physical activity (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.59) were significantly more likely to have a major bleeding event than those in the intermediate and ideal categories. Conclusions: In older adults with AF on OAC, poor cardiovascular health, smoking, and poor physical activity are all associated with a higher risk of major bleeding. Further investigation is needed to determine if smoking cessation and physical activity can lead to clinically meaningful reduction in bleeding events.

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