Abstract 096: Comparing Strategies to Improve Systolic Blood Pressure Over 10 Years: A Simulation Study Using the Blood Pressure Control Model

Abstract

Background: Uncontrolled hypertension increases patients’ risk for cardiovascular and kidney disease. This study compared strategies to improve systolic blood pressure (SBP) among 1000 simulated patients with uncontrolled hypertension (SBP >=140 mmHg) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Methods: The Blood Pressure Control Model (BPCM) is a microsimulation, health state transition model that predicts the weekly SBP of patients receiving usual care. In the BPCM, patient SBPs are estimated using office visit frequency, measured SBP accuracy and variability, probability of treatment intensification with uncontrolled SBP, effect of antihypertensive medications, and adherence. BPCM inputs are derived from national survey data, meta-analyses, and other published literature. The effects of usual care on SBP were compared to 10% and 50% increases in global strategies for SBP control (i.e., visit frequency, treatment intensification, and/or adherence) over 10 years. SBP outcomes were validated against published literature values of 44-46% prior to implementation (i.e., usual care) and 74-80% 8-10 years after implementation of aggressive hypertension management programs in large health systems. Results: In the simulated NHANES population, the mean (SD) age was 61.1 (14.6), 52% were male, and mean baseline SBP was 153.2 (13.6) mmHg. Under usual care, the BPCM estimated a mean SBP of 140.1 (16.4) mmHg and 49% of patients achieving SBP <140 mmHg after 10 years. Compared to usual care, 50% improvements in global strategies resulted in more rapid reductions in SBP and earlier achievement of SBP control. Simultaneously improving all global strategies by 50% resulted in an estimated mean SBP of 132.4 (15.5) mmHg with 71% achieving control after 10 years. Conclusions: Usual care and intervention BPCM predictions are consistent with hypertension control rates observed in contemporary national surveys and the observed results of recent systematic hypertension control improvement programs. These results show the BPCM may be used by health system planners to project the impact of implementing hypertension control strategies.