Abstract 062: Global Patterns Of Mean Systolic Blood Pressure Over Three Decades: Results From The Global Burden Of Disease 2019 Study

Abstract

Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and its risk factors are increasing globally. We estimated global and regional mean levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP) for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Methods: Mean SBP in mm Hg was estimated by age (adults >25 years), sex, location and year using all available population-based health surveys and studies that systematically measured brachial blood pressure. Estimates were produced using a Bayesian statistical model, spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, which produces a smoothed time series from 1990 to 2019, borrowing strength over space and time, then aggregates to GBD regions. Each point in the figure represents age- and sex-specific mean SBP for one of 21 GBD regions, color coded by the 7 GBD super regions; black triangles denote global mean SBP. We report 95% uncertainty intervals in brackets. Results: Globally, mean SBP increased with age, peaking at 75-84 years, followed by a plateau and slight decline amongst oldest adults. In adults >60 in 1990 and >70 in 2019, females had higher SBP than males globally; this difference declined over time. In 1990, mean SBP was highest among females in Central Europe aged 60-64 (150 [147- 154]) and High-income Asia Pacific aged 80-84 (150 [147 - 152]), and in males aged 80-84 in Western Europe (150 [147-152]) and High-income Asia Pacific (148 [146 - 150]). By 2019, mean SBP was highest among adults aged 80-84 in Western and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa for both females (150 [136 - 164]; 149 [142 - 156], respectively), and males (145 [140 - 150]; 144 [136 - 153], respectively). Conclusions: SBP increased globally with age and was higher in older women than men. The 5-year age group with highest estimated SBP shifted over time from parts of Europe and High-income Asia Pacific to parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Elevated SBP remains a major health risk for the world’s population, suggesting a need for increased investments in understanding its etiologies and how to treat and eventually prevent it as a cause of disease.