Absence of Memory in the Nineteenth-Century Alliance System: Perspectives from Queuing Theory and Bivariate Probability Distributions

Abstract

In this paper, it is demonstrated that the nineteenth-century alliance system is without memory, a finding that has implications for current peacemaking efforts. Queuing theory and the absence of memory allow for the reestimation of a parameter that is central to a Markovian transition matrix. As a consequence, the system is found to be even more stable than conjectured initially. Bivariate probability distributions demonstrate the absence of reinforcement or diffusion tendencies in alliance behavior among major powers. The use of bivariate distributions permits the disentangling of different possible sources of applicability of the univariate negative binomial to the distribution of alliances among countries.