Abstract

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km2 of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha−1, which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec’s managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041–2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec’s forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.

Highlights

  • Over recent decades, increased human activities have affected many aspects of the Earth’s systems, through the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated warming of the planet surface (Smith et al, 2014)

  • CACS in live tree biomass for the whole 43.5-M ha study area (Fig. 2A) was estimated to be 1,633 Tg of which, because of its size, the boreal forest alone represents 56% (Table 2). This represents an area-weighted average CACS of 37.6 Mg ha−1, including only land classified as productive forest

  • In the last forest resources assessment report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2010) the average CACS in live biomass of the Canadian managed forest was estimated to 45 Mg ha−1, while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported an average aboveground C stock of 48 Mg ha−1 for the American temperate and coniferous forest (excluding the forest tundra and very young forests (

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Summary

Introduction

Over recent decades, increased human activities have affected many aspects of the Earth’s systems, through the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated warming of the planet surface (Smith et al, 2014). Since the end of the 20th century, established forests have captured more C than they have released, resulting in a net carbon sink of approximately 2.4 Pg C year−1 (2.3–2.5 Pg C year−1 depending on the period being considered), which is nearly equivalent to the amount of C captured by the oceans (2.3 Pg C year−1, Pan et al, 2011) This C sink corresponds to approximately 30% of the total anthropogenic C emissions due to fossil fuel combustion, cement production and land use change (8.4 Pg C year−1, Pan et al, 2011)

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