Abstract
Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.
Highlights
In response to climate change and land use change, species distributions are changing across the globe [1,2,3]
We developed and compared multiple allometric equations using various combinations of predictor and response variables resulting in the selection of those shown in Table 2 and Table S1
Aboveground allometric models have been developed for mangrove species in different abiotic settings [42], most of these models are for trees growing in tropical wet climates
Summary
In response to climate change and land use change, species distributions are changing across the globe [1,2,3]. Mangroves are woody foundation plant species that are sensitive to extreme winter temperatures and dominant in warmer climates [17,18]. Salt marsh graminoids and salt marsh succulent plant foundation species are dominant in cooler coastal reaches [8,19] where extreme winter temperature events lead to mangrove mortality and/or limit mangrove forest development, reproduction, and dispersal [10,20,21]. In response to changing climatic conditions, a decrease in the frequency, duration, and/or intensity of extreme winter temperatures is expected which would facilitate poleward mangrove range expansion at the expense of salt marsh vegetation [10]. In the southeastern U.S, the northward expansion of mangroves is expected to occur in Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida
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