ABOUT THE INFLUENCE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATIC FACTORS ON THE GRAIN CROPS YIELD OF MINSK AND MOGILEV PROVINCES IN LATE 19th – EARLY 20th CENTURIES

Abstract

A quantitative assessment of the influence of weather and climatic factors (average air temperature and the amount of precipitation by months of the growing season) on major agricultural crops yield was carried out using ‘weather – harvest’ regression models and available statistical and meteorological data for Minsk and Mogilev provinces in late 19th – early 20th centuries. On the basis of the established dependencies, the vulnerability of the main grain crops to the climatic conditions of the period under consideration is shown, and specific factors are identified that determine the climatic variability of their yield. Using the weather index on the example of Minsk province, the favorable weather conditions for the main grain crops growth (winter rye and oats) in the considered years were assessed. It is shown that fluctuations in yield of winter rye were determined by moisture storage on eve of sowing and the conditions of its conduction, the sizes of sowings death because of temperature and precipitation sums ratio, heat supply of a period of vegetation resumption, weather conditions of spring and summer vegetation, ripening and harvesting. The fluctuations in oat yield were conditioned by spring moisture storage, weather conditions of sowing and harvesting but mainly by temperature background of during a period of summer vegetation and crop ripening.