About the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of the SARS-CoV-19 virus in Ukraine

Abstract

Taking into account that climate and atmospheric processes can, to a certain extent, affect viral epidemics, the dynamics of the rates of infection with the SARS-CoV-19 virus was analyzed in comparison with a number of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, humidity, etc.) in the territory Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Khmelnytsky regions as well as the city of Kiev during April—August 2020. To assess the impact of environmental conditions on the process of virus infection, the index of confirmed cases (ICC) was introduced.It is shown that in the spring, in particular, in May, the ICC index increased with a cold snap and decreased with a warming. In summer, the ICC index decreased with an increase of temperature with a delay of infection by 5—7 days, which is apparently associated with the incubation period of the virus (5—14 days). In particular, there was no increase in ICC values at high temperatures (over 30 °C). The relative humidity of the atmosphere air and the dew point temperature are more closely related to the efficiency of virus transmission. Thus, in spring, with an increase in relative humidity, an increase in the values of the ICC index was observed, and vice versa, with a decrease in relative humidity, the ICC index decreased. In summer, at high air temperatures and fluctuations in relative humidity, the ICC index mainly decreased, with the exception of a few weather situations. A decrease in the amount of atmospheric precipitation in April-August 2020 in Ukraine affected the activity of aerosol transmission of viruses (air-dust transport prevailed). At the same time, it was found that an increase of the ICC index during rainy periods correlates with the number of days with precipitation (less — with the amount of precipitation), while there is a delay in the growth of infection rates by several days. Analysis of the possible effect of precipitation acidity on the survival of the SARS-CoV-19 virus indicates the absence of a significant effect of this factor on the dissemination of viral infection. The presented results of the analysis of data on infection with the SARS-CoV-19 virus in Ukraine indicate a certain dependence of this process on climatic factors and are important for the assessment of the risks of infection and related diseases.