About the Authors

Abstract

Ali E. Abbas (“ Decomposing the Cross Derivatives of a Multiattribute Utility Function into Risk Attitude and Value ”) received the M.S. degree in electrical engineering, the M.S. degree in engineering economic systems and operations research, the Ph.D. degree in management science and engineering, and the Ph.D. (minor) degree in electrical engineering, all from Stanford University, Stanford, California. He was a lecturer in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford. He previously worked for Schlumberger Oilfield Services, where he held several international positions in wireline logging, operations management, and international training. He was also involved with several consulting projects for mergers and acquisitions in California, and was a co-teacher of several executive seminars on decision analysis at Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California. He is currently an associate professor in the Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign. His research interests include utility theory, decision making with incomplete information and preferences, dynamic programming, and information theory. Dr. Abbas is a member of INFORMS, a senior member of the IEEE, an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research, and an editor of the DA column in education for Decision Analysis Today. Address: Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 117 Transportation Building, MC-238, 104 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801; e-mail: aliabbas@uiuc.edu . Vicki M. Bier (“ Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation ”) holds a joint appointment as professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where she chairs the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering. She has directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems) since 1995. She has more than 20 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries. Before returning to academia, she spent seven years as a consultant at Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc. While there, her clients included the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and a number of nuclear utilities, and she prepared testimony for Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearings on the safety of the Indian Point nuclear power plants. Dr. Bier's current research focuses on applications of risk analysis and related methods to problems of security and critical infrastructure protection, under support from the Department of Homeland Security. She is also currently serving as a special term appointee for the Infrastructure Assurance Center at Argonne National Laboratory. Address: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 1513 University Avenue, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706; e-mail: bier@engr.wisc.edu . Robert F. Bordley (“ Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events ”) is an INFORMS Fellow and a winner of the best publication award from the Decision Analysis Society as well as five major application awards from General Motors. He is a General Motors Technical Fellow with experience in research, planning, quality, marketing, corporate strategy, and procurement. He is also an adjunct professor at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and was formerly program director of Decision, Risk and Management Sciences at the National Science Foundation. Dr. Bordley has published 75 papers in decision analysis, marketing, and operations management. He has also served as chair of the American Statistical Association's Risk Analysis Section (which now has 1000 members), vice president of the Production and Operations Management Society, and a member of the INFORMS Board and the Decision Analysis Society Council. He earned a Ph.D. and M.S. in operations research and an M.B.A. in finance from the University of California, Berkeley. His primary interests have been in theoretical developments enabling high-impact application of decision analysis in a wide variety of corporate contexts (e.g., engineering design, corporate strategy, procurement, program management, etc.). Address: General Motors, Pontiac Centerpoint Campus North, 585 South Boulevard, Pontiac, MI 48341; e-mail: robert.bordley@gm.com , rbordley@umich.edu . Heidi M. Crane (“ Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ”) is an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Washington (UW) School of Medicine and the associate director of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Services Research at the UW Center for AIDS Research (CFAR), which promotes research comparing the effectiveness of management strategies for HIV-infected patients in routine clinical practice. She is co–principal investigator (PI) of a PROMIS (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information Systems) National Institutes of Health Roadmap initiative U01 on measuring patient reported outcomes in clinical care for HIV-infected patients and PI of a National Institute of Mental Health R01 project on measuring and improving adherence for HIV-infected patients in clinical care. She is also medical director of the Madison HIV Metabolic clinic, PI of an American Heart Association grant on myocardial infarction and metabolic complications among patients with HIV, and PI of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality grant on comparative effectiveness of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication among HIV-infected patients. She provides care and training in the clinical care of HIV-infected individuals, and she also mentors junior investigators in HIV research in the UW Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Crane is a member of the Data Management Centers for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases–funded CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) research platform of real-time electronic health record data for 22,000 patients from eight CFARs across the United States, and the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS project's North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), which merges data on 110,000 HIV-infected individuals in care at 60 sites across the United States and Canada. Dr. Crane leads the CNICS Patient Reported Outcomes Committee and the CNICS and NA-ACCORD myocardial infarction event adjudication teams. Dr. Crane's research focuses on methods to improve clinical care for HIV-infected individuals as well as metabolic and other chronic comorbidities of HIV. She received her internal medicine residency training from Barnes and Jewish Hospitals, and her B.A., B.S., M.D., M.P.H. and Infectious Disease Fellowship training from the UW. Address: Harborview Medical Center, 325 9th Avenue, Box 359931, Seattle, WA 98104; e-mail: hcrane@u.washington.edu . Naraphorn Haphuriwat (“ Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation ”) is a researcher at the National Metal and Materials Technology Center in Thailand. She applies tools including optimization, decision analysis, and process simulation to improve production processes and operations for small and medium enterprises. She earned her Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering in August 2010. During her doctoral study, she was supported by the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the University of Southern California, where she conducted game-theoretic studies in the applications of security. She also received an honorable mention in the 2004–2005 University Book Store Academic Excellence Award Competition for a project related to computer security. Address: 114 Thailand Science Park, Paholyothin Road, Klong 1, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand; e-mail: naraphoh@mtec.or.th . Joseph B. Kadane (“ Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ”) is Leonard J. Savage University Professor of Statistics and Social Sciences, Emeritus, at Carnegie Mellon University. His research focus is on both foundational issues of Bayesian analysis and applications in many settings. These currently include physics, phylogenetics, air pollution, Internet security, law, and medicine, as well as Internet auctions. He also serves as an expert witness in legal matters. Address: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; e-mail: kadane@andrew.cmu.edu . L. Robin Keller (“ From the Editors: Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating ”) is a professor of operations and decision technologies in the Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. She received her Ph.D. and M.B.A. in management science and her B.A. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. She has served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Her research is on decision analysis and risk analysis for business and policy decisions and has been funded by NSF and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Her research interests cover multiple-attribute decision making, riskiness, fairness, probability judgments, ambiguity of probabilities or outcomes, risk analysis (for terrorism, environmental, health, and safety risks), time preferences, problem structuring, cross-cultural decisions, and medical decision making. She is currently Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analysis, published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). She is a Fellow of INFORMS and has held numerous roles in INFORMS, including board member and chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. She is a recipient of the George F. Kimball Medal from INFORMS. She has served as the decision analyst on three National Academy of Sciences committees. Address: The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-3125; e-mail: lrkeller@uci.edu . Mari M. Kitahata (“ Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ”) is professor of medicine at the University of Washington (UW) School of Medicine, director of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Services Research at the Center for AIDS Research (CFAR), and principal investigator of the UW HIV Cohort. She has provided care and training in the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals for two decades, and she mentors investigators in HIV research in the UW Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Kitahata studies the outcomes of care for persons with HIV infection, and her research has elucidated key determinants of increased survival, including care managed by physicians with HIV expertise and earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment. The need for observational research to complement the invaluable information provided by randomized controlled trials has grown tremendously, which is why she established the CFAR Clinical Epidemiology and Health Services Research program at UW in 1995 and was among the first CFARs in the United States to do so. Dr. Kitahata developed the structure and methods to merge comprehensive HIV patient data and biological specimens from multiple settings into a powerful resource for researchers conducting basic, translational, clinical outcomes/comparative effectiveness, and behavioral/prevention research. She has led efforts to establish networks of national and international HIV research collaborations to address the most pressing questions regarding treatment and outcomes for HIV-infected individuals that cannot be answered through smaller cohort studies. Dr. Kitahata directs the Data Management Centers for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases–funded CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) research platform of real-time electronic health record (EHR) data for 22,000 patients from eight CFARs across the United States, and the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS project's North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), which merges data on 110,000 HIV-infected individuals in care at 60 sites across the United States and Canada. Dr. Kitahata serves on the Board of Directors for the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) HIV Medicine Association, the U.S. Public Health Service/IDSA Guidelines Committee for Prevention of Opportunistic Infections, and the International Training and Education Center on HIV (I-TECH), where she developed a national EHR system for the Haitian Ministry of Health. Dr. Kitahata received her B.S. from Yale University, M.D. from the University of Pennsylvania, internal medicine residency training at the University of California, San Francisco, and M.P.H. and Fellowship training at the University of Washington, where she was a Robert Wood Johnson Clinical Scholar. Address: University of Washington Medical Center, 1959 NE Pacific Street, UW Box 356423, Seattle, WA 98195-6423; e-mail: kitahata@u.washington.edu . Sanjeev R. Kulkarni (“ Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ”) is a professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Princeton University. He is also an affiliated faculty member in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering and the Department of Philosophy. Prior to joining Princeton, he was a member of the technical staff at MIT Lincoln Laboratory. During his time at Princeton, he has held visiting or consulting positions with Australian National University, Susquehanna International Group, and Flarion Technologies. Professor Kulkarni has served as an associate editor for the IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, and he is a Fellow of the IEEE. His research interests include statistical pattern recognition, nonparametric statistics, learning and adaptive systems, information theory, wireless networks, and image/video processing. Address: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: kulkarni@princeton.edu . Daniel N. Osherson (“ Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ”) earned his Ph.D. in psychology at the University of Pennsylvania in 1973. Since then he has taught at Stanford University, the University of Pennsylvania, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Università San Raffael, Rice University, and Princeton University. His work centers on probability judgment and learning. Address: Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: osherson@princeton.edu . H. Vincent Poor (“ Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ”) is dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Princeton University, where he is also the Michael Henry Strater University Professor of Electrical Engineering. He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton. His research interests are in the areas of statistical signal processing, stochastic analysis, and information theory, and their applications to wireless networks and related fields. Among his publications in these areas are the recent books Quickest Detection (Cambridge University Press, 2009) and Information Theoretic Security (NOW Publishers, 2009). Dean Poor is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, and he is a Fellow of the IEEE, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Royal Academy of Engineering of the United Kingdom. A former Guggenheim Fellow, recent recognition of his work included the Institution of Engineering and Technology Ambrose Fleming Medal, the IEEE Eric E. Sumner Award, and an honorary D.Sc. from the University of Edinburgh. Address: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: poor@princeton.edu . Guanchun Wang (“ Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ”) received an undergraduate degree in electrical engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is currently a Ph.D. student in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Princeton University. His research interests include statistical learning, information retrieval, and judgment aggregation. He also worked as a summer associate for McKinsey's technology practice. Address: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: guanchun@princeton.edu . Henry H. Willis (“ Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation ”) is a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and the associate director of the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center. His research has applied risk analysis tools to resource allocation and risk management decisions in the areas of public health and emergency preparedness, terrorism and national security policy, energy and environmental policy, and transportation planning. Dr. Willis serves on the editorial board of the journal Risk Analysis and served on the National Academies of Science Committee on Evaluating Testing, Costs, and Benefits of Advanced Spectroscopic Portals. He earned his Ph.D. from the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University and holds degrees in chemistry and environmental studies from the University of Pennsylvania (B.A.) and in environmental science from the University of Cincinnati (M.A.). Address: RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; e-mail: hwillis@rand.org . Xiting (Cindy) Yang (“ Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ”) completed her Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University in the area of elicitation, specifically focusing on elicitation of expert knowledge on phylogenies in the format of rooted trees. She is currently a statistical reviewer at the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Her current research focuses on clinical trials and elicitation. Address: U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Building 66, Room 2223, Silver Spring, MD 20993-0002; e-mail: xiting.yang@fda.hhs.gov .