Abstract
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined — the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system — and multifactor way of undergo of external physical fields. Recital is based on the fact that selforganized critical systems are slightly chaotic ones. It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively longterm predictable. It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets (observed ones) having fractal structure — important details.
Highlights
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered
Recital is based on the fact that self-organized critical systems are slightly chaotic ones
It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively long-term predictable. It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets having fractal structure — important details
Summary
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Эффект стохастического резонанса представляет собой фундаментально общее физическое явление, типичное для нелинейных систем, в которых с помощью шума можно контролировать или влиять на один из характерных временных масштабов системы. При этом реализация той или иной определенной структуры решения из числа возможных зависит как от предыстории процесса, так и от условий, которые могут изменяться в пространстве и времени.
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