Abstract
Conjunction fallacy (together with other systematic reasoning errors) is usually explained in terms of the dual process theory of reasoning: Biases should be ascribed to fast and automatic processes, whereas slow and deliberative processes are responsible of producing answers that are correct with respect of normative criterion. The dual process theory is related to Bruner’s distinction between narrative and paradigmatic thought: Both modes of thought can be characterized by the two different processes of reasoning. In this paper, we explore the role of Bruner’s mode of thought manipulating also the difference between group vs individual reasoning. We observed that the narrative strategy of response induces more wrong answers. However, narrative-based strategies have higher effectiveness in the case of group reasoning. Our results suggest that narrative reasoning and group reasoning may induce violations of the conjunction rule when acceptable by the verisimilitude of the story. Five models are also presented in order to predict answer correctness and strategy of reasoning using a text analysis software.
Highlights
Within the internet science community, there had been many efforts to improve collective decision-making by means of specific technologies [1,2,3,4]
We investigate a paradigmatic reasoning error, the conjunction fallacy
When people have to rank the probability of the sentences related to Linda, using the representativeness heuristic means to employ the similarity between the description of Linda and the sentences to be ranked as a criterion of choice [8]
Summary
Within the internet science community, there had been many efforts to improve collective decision-making by means of specific technologies [1,2,3,4]. Conjunction fallacy has been investigated since the famous paper of Tversky and Kahneman [7] on extensional reasoning In this paper they proposed a variety of scenarios in which they asked to rank the probability of different sentences. When people have to rank the probability of the sentences related to Linda, using the representativeness heuristic means to employ the similarity between the description of Linda and the sentences to be ranked as a criterion of choice [8] This problem has stimulated a great deal of research [9,10,11,12], including attempts to define more precisely the concept of heuristic and a variety of other explanations [13,14,15,16,17]. This idea is marked with the general label of dual- or two-system theories [21,22,23,24,25,26,27]
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