Abortion in the United States: Past, Present, and Future Trends

Abstract

A comprehensive overview of historical and present patterns in the incidence of abortion in the U.S. Concerning recent patterns of legal abortion the author offers the following statements: 1) Abortion is an incresingly common form of fertility control with about 28% of all pregnancies terminated by abortion in 1977. 2) The extremely rapid increase in incidence of legal abortion appears to have passed as availability moves closer to need. 3) As the overall pace of increased incidence has lessened it has increased more rapidly among unmarried and nonwhite women. 4) Abortion continues to be concentrated among younger women with about 1/3 under 19 years of age. 5) Some data suggest that abortion tends to be more common among lower income and less educated women. Based on demographic trends in marriage and family patterns and past abortion patterns the author offers informed predictions on the likely course of future trends in abortion levels which may indicate directions for additional research as well as provide policy-makers with some guidelines for abortion related planning. The main predictions are that the incidence of abortion should continue to increase in the near term though at moderating rates and should move toward a point of stabilization by the mid1980s. Toward the end of the 80s a pattern of gradually declining incidence may well develop.