Abortion and the Presidential Election of 1976: A Multivariate Analysis of Voting Behavior

Abstract

Data collected in the National Election Survey from 2248 respondents before the 1976 U.S. presidential election and from 1909 respondents following the election was used to examine the impact of the abortion issue on the election outcome. Analysis revealed that despite the wide news coverage given to the issue and the intense effort on the part of the National Council of Catholic Bishops to politicize the abortion issue, voters gave little priority to the abortion issue. Less than 1/2 of 1% of the votes cast by the respondents could be accounted for by the voter's opinion on abortion. Although both Carter and Ford opposed a constitutional amendment restricting abortion, Ford's position was closer to the position of the pro-life groups than Carter's position. When other factors were controlled, 47.7% of the respondents who were opposed to abortion for any reason voted for Carter and 54.4% of those who though abortion should never be forbidden voted for Carter. These findings indicated that there was a relationship between voting behavior and abortion attitudes but that the relationship was very mild. Abortion was certainly not a major issue in the minds of the voters. When the respondents were asked to name the 3 major issues in the campaign only 1/10 of 1% mentioned the abortion issue. The prediction was made that the pro-life groups would attempt to make abortion an issue in subsequent elections but that the major impact of this effort would be felt only at the local level and not at the federal level.