Abnormally high water temperature prediction using LSTM deep learning model

Abstract

Recently, abnormally high water temperature (AHWT) phenomena are occurring more often due to the global warming and its impact. These phenomena have damaged extensively to the maritime economy around the southern coast of Korea and caused an illness by exacerbating the propagation of Vibrio pathogens. To mitigate damages by AHWT phenomena, it is necessary to respond as quickly as possible or predict them in advance. In this study, therefore, we proposed a deep learning-based methodology to predict the occurrences of AHWT phenomena using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. First, a LSTM model was trained using the satellite-derived water temperature data over the past ten years. Then, the water temperatures after a few days were estimated using the trained LSTM model. In a performance evaluation, when estimating water temperatures after one-day, the model achieved results of 1.865 and 0.412 in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. Second, we developed a decision algorithm based on the Markov state transition in order to predict the AHWT occurrence probability. As a result, we obtained 0.88 of F1 score for predicting AHWT phenomena after 1 day in case of the southern coast of Korea.