Abdominal aortic calcification score can predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Abstract

Purpose Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) assessed by using standard lateral lumbar radiographs can be graded, and composite summary scores (range, 0–24) have been shown to be highly predictive of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. However, few studies have sought to determine the optimal AAC score cutoff values for the prediction of mortality among HD patients. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 408 hemodialysis patients. AAC severity was quantified by the AAC score, which was measured by lateral lumbar radiography with complete follow-up data from January 2015 to December 2021. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to find the cutoff AAC value for the prediction of mortality. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to analyze all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results The cutoff calcification score for the prediction of mortality was 4.5 (sensitivity, 67.3%; specificity, 70.4%). The patients with AAC scores above 4.5 had significantly higher all-cause (log-rank p < 0.001) and cardiovascular (log-rank p < 0.001) mortality rates than those with AAC scores below 4.5. In the multivariate regression analyses, an AAC score above 4.5 was a significant factor associated with all-cause mortality (HR: 2.079, p = 0.002) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.610, p < 0.001). Conclusions AAC is a reliable aortic calcification marker. HD patients with an AAC score > 4.5 have significantly elevated all-cause and cardiovascular mortality compared with those with an AAC score ≤ 4.5. AAC was a better predictor than cardiac valve calcification for mortality in HD patients.