AB1370 Case mix of new patients seen in northumberland-results from a local survey

Ethnic and geographic variations in the epidemiology of childhood fractures in the United Kingdom

The objectives of this study were to examine changes in the incidence and prevalence of RA between 1990 and 2014 and to explore if there is any geographic variation in the incidence and prevalence of RA in the UK. This was a primary care-based prospective cohort study. People contributing acceptable data to Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014 were included. Read codes were used to identify RA cases ⩾18 years of age. The prevalence and incidence rates for each year were standardized to the 2014 population and the regional incidence and prevalence of RA for the year 2014 were standardized to the overall population. The incidence and prevalence of RA was 3.81/10 000 person-years and 0.67%, respectively, in 2014. The annual incidence of RA decreased by 1.6% (95% CI 0.8, 2.5) between 1990 and 2014, with significant joinpoints at 1994 and 2002. The prevalence of RA increased by 3.7%/year (95% CI 3.2, 4.1) from 1990 to 2005 and decreased by 1.1%/year (95% CI 2.0, 0.2) between 2005 and 2014. There were significant differences in the occurrence of RA throughout different regions of the UK, with the highest incidence in East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber and the highest prevalence in North East, Yorkshire and Humber. The incidence of RA is decreasing, with a reduction in prevalence in recent years. There is significant geographic variation in the occurrence of RA in the UK. Further research is required to identify the reasons underlying this phenomenon so that public health interventions can be designed to further reduce the incidence of RA.

The geographic and temporal variations in mortality from Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were investigated. The validity of mortality data as indicators of morbidity was tested by comparing the death rates and incidences among different countries. Death rates from Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were high in England, Germany, and the Scandinavian countries, and low in the Mediterranean countries. There was a significant correlation between the incidence and mortality of both diseases among different countries. In addition, the incidence and mortality of Crohn's disease were correlated with those of ulcerative colitis. In countries with a low mortality rate from Crohn's disease, the death rates in men tended to be higher than those in women. In contrast, countries with high death rates from Crohn's disease showed female predominance. No such relationship existed for ulcerative colitis. The overall change in mortality rates during the last 20 to 30 years was characterized by a rise of Crohn's disease and a marked fall of ulcerative colitis. In countries with a high mortality rate from Crohn's disease, the death rates started to fall in recent times. The significant correlations between incidence and mortality show that the death rates from both diseases represent reliable indicators of the morbidity and that the severity of the two diseases is similar in different countries. The marked temporal and geographic variations in both incidence and mortality suggest that environmental factors play an important role in the etiology of both diseases.

This chapter examines geographical variations in the incidence of childhood leukaemia. It shows there is more variation of incidence at the international level than at smaller geographical scales of study. Geographical variations in childhood leukaemia incidence are generally not as great as is sometimes supposed, and that such as do occur may be due as much to genetic differences as to environmental ones.

Our aim was to describe the incidence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the United States, overall and by geographic region. We conducted retrospective analyses of administrative claims data for a 5% random sample of US Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older. AD incidence, defined as a diagnosis for AD (International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 331.0×) in a given year, with no AD diagnosis in the beneficiary's entire medical history, was estimated for each calendar year between 2007 and 2014. Beneficiaries were required to be enrolled in Medicare for the calendar year of evaluation as well as the preceding 12 months. In addition, a cross-sectional assessment of geographic variation in AD incidence was conducted for 2014. For each population area (specifically, core-based statistical area, as defined by the US Census Bureau), AD incidence was estimated overall, as well as adjusted for differences in underlying patient demographics and metrics of access to care and quality of care. Changes in AD incidence from 2007 were also estimated. US fee-for-service Medicare. US Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with no history of AD. Overall, the diagnosed incidence of AD decreased over time, from 1.53% in 2007 to 1.09% in 2014; trends were similar for most population areas. In 2014, the rates of AD incidence ranged from 0% to more than 3% across population areas, with the highest observed incidence rates in areas of the Midwest and the South. Statistical models explain little of the geographic variation, although following adjustment, the incidence rates increased the most (in relative terms) in rural areas of western states. Our findings are consistent with previously reported estimates of incidence of AD in the United States and its recent declining trend. Additionally, the study highlights the considerable geographic variation in the incidence of AD in the United States and suggests that further research is needed to better understand the determinants of this geographic variation. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:346-353, 2020.

To investigate the geographical variation in prostate cancer incidence in Sweden, in particular the incidences of screening-detected tumours and curative treatment of prostate cancer. Data were retrieved from the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden for all cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the year 2000-01. There were a total of 14 376 cases of prostate cancer and the mean total annual age-adjusted incidence was 197/100 000 men. There were 3318 cases in tumour category T1c, i.e. non-palpable tumours diagnosed during work-up for an elevated serum level of prostate-specific antigen, 1006 of which (30%) were asymptomatic and detected at a health check-up. The difference between the counties with the lowest and highest age-adjusted incidences per 100 000 men of total prostate cancer was almost twofold (128 vs 217). The corresponding variation in incidence of category T1c tumours was more than fourfold (13 vs 60); the difference in incidence of T1c tumours detected in asymptomatic men was up to 10-fold (2 vs 20); and there was more than a fourfold variation in incidence of curative treatment between counties (13 vs 67). Measured incidences were mostly highest in urban regions and in counties with university hospitals. There are large geographical variations in prostate cancer incidence and in the frequency of curative treatment for prostate cancer in Sweden and there appear to be large geographical variations in the uptake of prostate cancer screening.

Cardiac arrest (CA) is considered a major public health issue. Few studies have focused on geographic variations in incidence and socioeconomic characteristics. The aim of this study is to identify clusters of municipalities with high or low CA incidence, and find socioeconomic factors associated with them. CA data from three Parisian counties, representing 123 municipalities, were extracted from the French CA registry. Socioeconomic data for each municipality were collected from the French national institute of statistics. We used a statistical approach combining Bayesian methods to study geographical CA incidence variations, and scan statistics, to identify CA incidence clusters of municipalities. Finally, we compared clusters of municipalities in terms of socioeconomic factors. Strong geographical variations were found among 123 municipalities: 34 presented a significantly increased risk of incidence and 37 presented a significantly low risk. Scan statistics identified seven significant spatial clusters of CA incidence, including three clusters with low incidence (the relative risk varied from 0.23 to 0.54) and four clusters with high incidence (the relative risk varied from 1.43 to 2). Clusters of municipalities with a high CA incidence are characterized by a lower socioeconomic status than the others (low and normal CA incidence clusters). Analysis showed a statistically significant relationship between social deprivation factors and high incidence. This study shows strong geographical variations in CA incidence and a statistically significant relationship between over-incidence and social deprivation variables.

Studies over the last few decades have demonstrated geographic variation in the incidence of hip fracture across continents and among different parts of the same region. This paper studies the epidemiology of hip fracture worldwide, with special emphasis on the geographic variation among Asian countries. Using the Pubmed database, keywords that were employed included hip fracture, incidence rate, geographic variation, osteoporosis, and epidemiology. Articles were chosen based on the basis of (1) focus: studies that were said to specifically focus on geographic variation in hip fracture from different continents with a focus on Asia; (2) language: studies that were in English; (3) methods: studies that used statistical tests to examine hip fracture incidence rates. The highest hip fracture rates are seen in Scandinavian countries and the US and the lowest in African countries. Fracture rates are intermediate in Asian populations. Among different ethnic populations, the highest fracture rates are seen in Caucasians and the lowest in blacks. There is also a north-south gradient, particularly in Europe, where more hip fractures occur in North Europe compared to the South.

We investigated the effect of climatic, demographic factors and intra-country geographical variations on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Italy. For this purpose, incidence rates of IMD cases reported in Italy between 1994 and 2012 were calculated, and a cluster analysis was performed. A geographical gradient was determined, with lower incidence rates in central and southern Italy, compared to the northern parts, where most clusters were observed. IMD rates were higher in medium-sized towns than in villages. Adults were at lower risk of IMD than children aged ⩽4 years. IMD incidence tended to decrease with increasing monthly mean temperatures (incidence rate ratio 0·94, 95% confidence interval 0·90-0·99). In conclusion, geographical variations in IMD incidence were found, where age and temperature were associated with disease occurrence. Whether geographical variations should be considered in national intervention plans is still a matter for discussion.

Background: Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide. There is wide geographic variation in incidence with rates varying ten-fold between high- and low-income countries. This heavy burden can be mitigated given previous research has estimated that nearly half of all colorectal cancer cases could have been prevented through healthier diets and physically active lifestyles. In Canada, there is considerable geographic variation in age-adjusted incidence rates for colorectal cancer between jurisdictions, greater than that seen for many other cancers. These wide variations likely reflect differences in the prevalence of risk factors across provinces and territories. Aim: To describe the extent of the variation in colorectal cancer incidence rates across Canada and the disparities in the prevalence of modifiable risk factors across jurisdictions known to contribute to this burden. Methods: Colorectal cancer incident cases were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry; 2014 was used for provinces (except Quebec where 2010 was the most recent year available) and years 2012 to 2014 were combined to achieve more stable rates for the territories, which are much smaller in population. Data on four known modifiable risk factors for colorectal cancer (excess weight, physical inactivity, alcohol intake and low fruit and vegetable consumption) were obtained from the 2015-16 combined Canadian Community Health Survey. Results: Findings suggest that there is a north-south and east-west gradient in colorectal cancer modifiable risk factors in Canada. For instance, the percentage of adults with excess body weight ranged from 56.8% in British Columbia (west) to 73.1% in New Brunswick (east) and the percentage of adults not meeting physical activity guidelines ranged from 31.8% in Yukon (north) to 50.3% in New Brunswick (east). Generally, this pattern also reflects colorectal cancer incidence rates. The highest prevalence of modifiable risk factors and rates of colorectal cancer are typically in the northern (territories) and eastern provinces of Canada. Conclusion: The global burden of colorectal cancer is expected to increase by nearly 60% by 2030; therefore, targeted interventions are needed to ensure there is not a widening gap in colorectal cancer burden worldwide. Based on current knowledge, the most effective approaches to reduce the burden of colorectal cancer include: 1) adopting public policies that make healthy choices easier and create healthier environments where people live, work and play, and 2) continuing emphasis on screening and early detection. Strategic approaches to addressing modifiable risk factors, as well as mechanisms for detecting colorectal cancer before it develops, have the potential to translate into positive effects on population health and less people developing and dying from cancer.

The geographic variation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) incidence in the United States is unknown. We studied residential region from January 1, 1921, to May 31, 1976, and RA risk in a prospective cohort of women, the Nurses' Health Study. Information on state of residence was collected at baseline in 1976 (when participants were aged 30-55 years) and on state of residence at birth, at age 15 years, and at age 30 years in 1992. Among 83,546 participants reporting residence for all 4 time points, 706 incident RA cases from June 1, 1976, to May 31, 2004, were confirmed by screening questionnaire and record review for American College of Rheumatology criteria. Residential region was classified as West, Midwest, mid-Atlantic, New England, and Southeast. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess relationships between region and RA risk, adjusting for age, smoking, body mass index, parity, breastfeeding, postmenopausal status, postmenopausal hormone use, father's occupation, race, and physical activity. Analyses were performed in participants who lived in the same regions, or moved, over time. Compared with those in the West, women in New England had a 37% to 45% elevated risk of RA in multivariate models at each time point (eg, state of residence in 1976: rate ratio [RR], 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.82). In analyses of women who lived in the same region at birth, age 15 years, and age 30 years, living in the Midwest was associated with greater risk (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.05-2.05), as was living in New England (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.98-2.00). Compared with living in the West at birth, age 15 years, and age 30 years, RA risk was higher in the East. In this large cohort of US women, significant geographic variation in incident RA existed after controlling for confounders. Potential explanations include regional variation in behavioral factors, climate, environmental exposures, RA diagnosis, and genetic factors.

ConclusionThe observations on which our knowledge of the geographical variation in the incidence of cancer is based began to be made by surgeons in the last century who, working first in one country and then in another, realized that the pattern of disease with which they had to deal varied with the society in which they worked. Gross differences were readily accepted, like that reported less than 2 years after Grey Turner's birth between the vale of Kashmir, where Maxwell and Elmslie found that 42 out of 54 epitheliomas (78%) occurred on the skin of the abdomen or thigh, and European countries, where none were reported on these sites in a series of 220 cases [28]; however, smaller differences were not accepted.The uneven availability of medical services and the disparity in birth and death rates, which produced major differences in the age distribution of different populations, made accurate comparisons impossible and the range of permissible opinion varied from the belief that cancer occurred equally everywhere at the same ages to the belief that the great majority of cases were produced by industrialization. Now, thanks to the development of cancer registries, it has been possible to put the matter beyond doubt and to demonstrate unequivocal differences, some of which are certainly attributable to industrialization, which has sometimes led to the development of the disease and sometimes to its elimination. We know, too, that careful observations, like those made by Denis Burkitt and the hundreds of surgeons and physicians who have collaborated with him throughout Africa, are capable of providing an indication of the relative frequency of different cancers that can provide valuable clues, even in the absence of precise figures for the size of the population served.If this Congress is able to stimulate the collection of similar figures that will fill in the remaining gaps of the cancer map of the world, it may well make an important contribution to our knowledge of the causes of the disease and the way it can be prevented.

ContextHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common cancers in the world but with a striking geographical variation in incidence; most of the burden is in developing countries. This geographic variation in HCC incidence might be due to geographic differences in the prevalence of various etiological factors.Evidence AcquisitionHere, we review the epidemiological evidence linking dietary exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and risk of HCC, possible interactions between AFB1 and hepatitis B virus (HBV) or polymorphisms of genes involved in AFB1-related metabolism as well as DNA repair.ResultsEcological, case-control and cohort studies that used various measures of aflatoxin exposure including dietary questionnaires, food surveys and biomarkers are summarized.ConclusionsTaken together, the data suggest that dietary exposure to aflatoxins is an important contributor to the high incidence of HCC in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where almost 82% of the cases occur.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks third among the most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide, with wide geographical variation in incidence and mortality across the world. Despite proof that screening can decrease CRC...

We performed a nation-wide study on geographical variation in the incidence and prevalence of medicated parkinsonism among the Finns aged > or =30 years using Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive models. Registry of reimbursed medication for parkinsonism and a prescription database of purchase of these drugs were used to identify the study subjects. They were located by the map coordinates of the place of residence and aggregated into regular 100 km(2) grid cells. A total of 7,190 incident and 10,616 prevalent cases were found. The age-adjusted annual incidence was 32.6/100,000 (95% HDR 31.8-33.4) during the years 1995 to 2000 and prevalence was 268/100,000 (95% HDR 263-274) in 2000. The male to female ratio was 1.45 (95% HDR 1.39-1.51) in incidence and 1.54 (95% HDR 1.47-1.61) in prevalence. There was strong evidence for geographic variation in incidence and prevalence. A zone with high incidence and prevalence was identified in the eastern and central part of Finland. There was no evidence for difference in incidence and prevalence between urban and rural areas. The marked (more than two-fold) geographic variation can hardly be caused solely by practices of the registration and collection of data on diagnosis or by methodological issues, but rather suggests to geographic variation in protective and predisposing factors of Parkinsonism in Finland.