A88 Young driver crash rates in Great Britain: trends and comparisons between countries

Abstract

Abstract Background Trends in young driver (YD) crashes are difficult to interpret, as are variations between YD and older driver (OD) crash rates. This is partly due to difficulties with identifying an appropriate denominator. Population profiles do not account for those who do and do not drive and survey data are subject to biases. Driver licensing data are not routinely available in appropriate age groupings. Specific aim To calculate YD and OD crash rates, using driver licensing data, for analysis of trends and comparison between countries. Methods Police road traffic crash data for 2000 to 20013 were obtained from the UK data archive and, using methods developed previously (Jones et al., 2012), used to calculate the numbers of crashes in England, Scotland, Wales and GB in which YD (aged 17 to 19 years) and OD (20+ years). Annual driver licensing data were obtained, through a Freedom of Information (FOI) request for 17 to 19 year olds, 20 to 22 year olds, 23 to 25 year olds etc for 2000 to 2013 for England, Scotland and Wales. Three year rolling average crash rates were calculated for YD and OD. A rate ratio for YD to OD crash rates, along with 95% confidence intervals, was calculated. Results For Great Britain, YD crash rates dropped by 61.4% between 2000-02 and 2011-13, from 42.1 per 1000 to 16.2. For OD, the drop was 45.1%, from 6.5 to 3.6. The inequalities gap narrowed significantly, from 6.5 (95%CI 6.41 to 6.59) in 2000-02 to 4.6 (95%CI 4.47 to 4.66) in 2011-13. In 2011 to 2013, YD crash rates in England were 16.4, 14.8 in Scotland and 15.9 in Wales, but the only significant difference in rates was between England and Scotland (difference 1.6, 96%CI 0.4 to 2.7). Analysis of inequalities found that in England, YD crash rates were 4.4 times higher than OD (95%CI 4.26 to 4.45), 5.4 times higher in Scotland (95%CI 5.05 to 5.86) and 5.7 times higher in Wales (95%CI 5.24 to 6.19). Conclusions Young driver crash rates are declining and although they are doing so more rapidly than older driver crash rates, the inequalities gap between the two groups is still large. The UK Government promised a Green Paper on Young Drivers in January 2013, but postponed the production of this indefinitely in December 2013. Urgent action is needed if these inequalities are to be addressed and the burden of road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths on health and health services is to be reduced.