Abstract
Although prior studies have identified several risk factors for gun carrying, no prior longitudinal studies have examined a comprehensive set of explanatory factors together in within-individual change models or examined whether the predictors of gun carrying change across adolescence and early young adulthood. The present study fills these gaps by examining the predictive utility of several risk factors for gun carrying, and by examining whether any of the associations vary by age. The sample included 1216 young men who were arrested for the first time during adolescence (approximately 15 years old) and interviewed regularly for 5 years (until approximately 20 years old) after the first arrest. The outcome was youth-self-reported gun carrying and the risk factors included several variables consistent with various explanations for gun carrying (psychosocial maturity deficits; antisocial behavioral style; socialization; victimization). Research questions were addressed with fixed effects dynamic panel models (within-individual change models). Results showed that the most robust predictors of gun carrying were increased exposure to guns and gun-related violence and increased engagement in other antisocial and illegal behavior. The results emphasize the specific etiology of gun carrying and the potential social contagion effect of gun-related events. Overall, the study points to the need for prevention and intervention programs to specifically target the reduction of the real and perceived prevalence of gun-related events in young men’s lives.
Highlights
IntroductionAdolescents and young adults who carry firearms put themselves and those around them at risk for violent injuries and death (Branas et al, 2009; Carter et al, 2013; Loughran et al, 2016; Pickett et al, 2005)
Some studies have focused on risk factors that are related to the individual, such as deficits in psychosocial maturity (Lee et al, 2020) or engaging in other antisocial and illegal behaviors (Docherty et al, 2019a, 2019b), other studies suggest that the primary reasons for youth gun carrying are contextual, such as socialization processes (Wilkinson et al, 2009) or self-protection after victimization (Oliphant et al, 2019)
The present study was designed to overcome the limitations in prior work by testing whether several psychological, behavioral, and contextual risk factors were associated with gun carrying during adolescence and early young adulthood
Summary
Adolescents and young adults who carry firearms put themselves and those around them at risk for violent injuries and death (Branas et al, 2009; Carter et al, 2013; Loughran et al, 2016; Pickett et al, 2005). It is critical to identify the factors that place youth most at risk for gun carrying. Some studies have focused on risk factors that are related to the individual, such as deficits in psychosocial maturity (Lee et al, 2020) or engaging in other antisocial and illegal behaviors (Docherty et al, 2019a, 2019b), other studies suggest that the primary reasons for youth gun carrying are contextual, such as socialization processes (Wilkinson et al, 2009) or self-protection after victimization (Oliphant et al, 2019). Given the many developmental and social differences between adolescents and young adults, it is possible that the predictors of gun carrying change with age. No prior longitudinal study has examined a comprehensive set of risk factors together, while controlling for youths’ prior propensity to carry a gun, or examined
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