A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

Kent P Mcfarland,Jason M Townsend,Anne Sutton,Yves Aubry,James E Goetz,Christopher C Rimmer,Joseph M Wunderle,Alejandro Llanes Sosa,Arturo Kirkconnell,Rohan H Clarke

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053986

Abstract

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km2, nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and other wet, broadleaf forest specialists in the Greater Antilles.

Highlights

Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) is among North America’s most rare, range-restricted breeding passerines
Predictive Modeling We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles using Maximum Entropy Modeling of Species Geographic Distributions version 3.3.1 (Maxent; http://www.cs.princeton.edu/ ̃schapire/maxent)
Of the 99 sites at which observers recorded vegetation type, 93% were in broadleaf forest, 4% in mixed pine-broadleaf forest, and 3% in dense pine forests

Summary

Introduction

Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) is among North America’s most rare, range-restricted breeding passerines. Cordifolia), and mountain ash (Sorbus americana and S. decora) [2,7,8] At both ends of its migratory range, Bicknell’s Thrush occupies a limited, highly fragmented distribution and faces multiple habitat threats that may impact populations [2,7,9]. These include climate change [10], acid ion deposition [11,12,13], mercury contamination [14], mountaintop development [2,15,16], forestry operations [17,18], and loss and degradation of winter habitats [2,19]

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Conclusion