Abstract
BackgroundTo examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside.MethodsDaily COVID-19 incidence reported in Suffolk County, NY, between March 16th and December 31st, 2020, was the outcome. Average wind speed and maximal daily temperature were collated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Negative binomial regression was used to model incidence rates while adjusting for susceptible population size.ResultsCases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Most days between May 1st, 2020, and October 24th, 2020, had temperatures 16–28 °C and wind speed diminished slowly over the year and began to increase again in December 2020. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 16 and 28 °C where wind speed was < 8.85 km per hour (KPH) had increased COVID-19 incidence (aIRR = 1.45, 95% C.I. = [1.28–1.64], P < 0.001) as compared to days with average wind speed ≥ 8.85 KPH.ConclusionThroughout the U.S. epidemic, the role of outdoor shared spaces such as parks and beaches has been a topic of considerable interest. This study suggests that outdoor transmission of COVID-19 may occur by noting that the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in some outdoor environments where airflow is limited.
Highlights
To examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside
COVID-19 transmits via aerosolized viral particles that begin shedding before symptoms are evident [4], making it difficult to trace patterns or locations where exposures are occurring
Measures To examine the potential for exterior exposure risk, we modeled COVID-19 incidence using cases reported to the Suffolk County Department of Health from March 16th, when data first began being recorded reliably using an electronic interface, until December 31st, 2020
Summary
To examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside. Suffolk County, N.Y., experienced its first wave of infections early in March 2020, when the pandemic had just arrived in N.Y., causing a high degree of transmission and large numbers of COVID-related deaths. One explanation for a lack of known exposures is that COVID19 transmits in spaces that are believed to be safe. One study found that COVID-19 could transmit through the air over relatively long distances [6] and another highlighted the impact of air conditioning vents [7]. Still other studies have revealed that individuals in a constricted space could spread COVID-19 via inhaled transmission over potentially large distances by following airflow within a restaurant [7] and the Diamond Princess cruise ship [6]
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