A Western Reversal Since the Neolithic? The Long-Run Impact of Early Agriculture

Ola Olsson,Christopher Paik

doi:10.1017/s0022050719000846

Abstract

In this article we document a reversal of fortune within the Western agricultural core, showing that regions which made early transition to Neolithic agriculture are now poorer than regions that made the transition later. The finding contrasts recent influential works emphasizing the beneficial role of early transition. Using data from a large number of carbon-dated Neolithic sites throughout the Western agricultural area, we determine approximate transition dates for about 60 countries, 280 medium-sized regions, and 1,400 small regions. Our empirical analysis shows that there is a robust negative, reduced-form relationship between years since transition to agriculture and contemporary levels of income both across and within countries. Our results further indicate that the reversal had started to emerge already before the era of European colonization.

Highlights

In this article we document a reversal of fortune within the Western agricultural core, showing that regions which made early transition to Neolithic agriculture are poorer than regions that made the transition later
In our main empirical analysis, we find that (i) there is a negative relationship between time since transition to agriculture and contemporary income levels; (ii) the relationship between time since transition to agriculture and income levels turn from a positive to a negative relationship over time; and (iii) democracy emerges earlier in countries that made a late transition to agriculture
We introduce a novel modelling of long-term dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP)

Summary

A Western Reversal Since the Neolithic?

In this article we document a reversal of fortune within the Western agricultural core, showing that regions which made early transition to Neolithic agriculture are poorer than regions that made the transition later. These empirical patterns suggest that the reversal observed in our data extends beyond any regional context and differs from established claims in the literature explaining the long-run divergence in income levels as a case of Western European exceptionalism. In line with the evidence noted earlier, we suggest the following revised interpretation: the average income levels per capita are higher in the Western core than in other regions of the world due to the advantages of an early transition to agriculture and civilization, but in comparisons within agricultural core areas, early adoptions of agriculture led to a relatively low level of current economic development. This translates into a mean adoption date of 5,050 bce and a first adoption date of 8,290 bce

EMPIRICAL FINDINGS

A Country A

CONCLUDING REMARKS