A Weighted Graph Model to Estimate People's Presence in Public Space - The Visit Potential Model

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce the Visit Potential Model (VPM), an integrated model to evaluate public space characteristics. It is an initial attempt to model and predict the potential presence of people in public places (i.e. their Visit Potential); the presence and flux of people being the underlying driver of all public space. We achieved this by combining a proposed universal law of visit frequencies in cities with a gravity measure for accessibility. We also demonstrate how this model can be extended to represent public space quality and liveliness throughout the hours of the day - a crucial concept in public space design. The paper primarily discusses the development of the calculation model, describing three variants to calculate Visit Potential values for public spaces: based on a public space's accessibility to people, the potential number of people visiting attractors, and the number of people moving through and occupying a public space.