A web-based integrated Bayesian decision support system for rangeland management in semi-arid watersheds

Abstract

A Bayesian web-based Decision Support System (DSS) was designed and developed to assist various stakeholders in improving biophysical and socio-economic conditions in a stressed and fragile watershed by systematically evaluating current watershed characteristics, introducing feasible solutions as well as choosing the best ones. The need to deliver a flexible DSS has been the motivation to look for a decision toolbox accommodating the concerns and priorities of a wide range of stakeholders as the potential users. This assists the users to make informed decisions based on quantified potential outcomes. The DSS main components include a database management system, a model base management system, multi-attribute decision-making models, and a graphical user interface. This prototype DSS provides a brief introduction of a pilot watershed characterized with semi-arid conditions in the Mid-north of Iran and then presents the problem structure using the DPSIR approach. A set of vegetation-based solutions and their spatial distribution considering some scenario rules are provided to the DSS users. The various impacts of the proposed solutions are predicted using several models in the Bayesian network modeling context integrating qualitative and quantitative knowledge and data. The DSS developed in this study facilitates knowledge transfer and involvement of stakeholders including practitioners and local communities in the decision making process. This DSS has been designed into a web-based and open-source framework for easier and inclusive access. The DSS can be tailored to fit a broader class of environmental problems.