A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana.

Eric Adjei Lawer,John Aseidu Larbi,Esther Love Darkoh

doi:10.1155/2017/7820454

Abstract

This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature, on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that malaria incidence in the study area decreased at about 0.35% annually. Also, the month of November recorded approximately 21% more malaria cases than the other months while September had a decreased effect of about 14%. The forecast model developed for this investigation indicated that mean minimum (P = 0.01928) and maximum (P = 0.00321) monthly temperatures lagged at three months were significant predictors of malaria incidence while rainfall was not. Diagnostic tests using Ljung-Box and ARCH-LM tests revealed that the model developed was adequate for forecasting. Forecast values for 2016 to 2020 generated by our model suggest a possible future decline in malaria incidence. This goes to suggest that intervention strategies put in place by some nongovernmental and governmental agencies to combat the disease are effective and thus should be encouraged and routinely monitored to yield more desirable outcomes.

Highlights

Malaria transmission predominantly occurs in tropical and subtropical areas where Anopheles mosquitoes can survive and multiply
It is important to note that malaria vector control interventions using long lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) have been promoted in the country since 1998 and 2006, respectively
Minimum and maximum values of malaria cases observed during the period of investigation were 192.00 and 2112.00, respectively

Summary

Introduction

Malaria transmission predominantly occurs in tropical and subtropical areas where Anopheles mosquitoes can survive and multiply. Vectors of the disease are geographically specific. There are 104 malaria endemic countries and approximately half the world’s population are at risk of infection [1]. Though malaria has been successfully eliminated in temperate regions of the world, the disease is on the rise in Africa [2]. In Ghana, malaria is a principal public health problem which plagues all segments of the society [3]. It is important to note that malaria vector control interventions using long lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) have been promoted in the country since 1998 and 2006, respectively. Due to some challenges encountered with the previous intervention (i.e., 1998-LLIN), the country started a door-to-door distribution and hang up campaign in 2010 (i.e., 05/2010–10/2012) through the NMCP [4]. It again pioneered a mixed model distribution mechanism using antenatal care, schools, and work places among others in 2013

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion