A water-level based calibration of rainfall-runoff models constrained by regionalized discharge indices

Abstract

Rainfall-runoff models are generally calibrated by using continuous stream discharge data. However, most catchments around the globe remain ungauged due to the difficulty in installing gauges in river channels with complex morphology and due to the high costs of installation and maintenance. Recently, new calibration methods that use water level data instead of gauged discharge to calibrate rainfall-runoff models have been proposed. With emerging low-cost local water-level monitoring technologies or with satellite altimetry, these water-level based calibration methods have the potential to significantly extend runoff prediction capability. However, rainfall-runoff models calibrated from using water-level information alone may lead to biased discharge even when water-level variations are accurately reproduced. It has been shown that this bias problem can be significantly alleviated when just a few discharge measurements, especially of high flows, are available and incorporated into the model calibration. However, it is rare to have discharge measurement data when catchments are ungauged. In this study, we incorporate discharge estimates derived from regionalization into a water-level based calibration using an inverse rating curve (IRC) method. Specifically, discharge indices such as the 95th percentile of daily discharge (Q95) and the mean daily discharge (Qmean) are estimated from catchment and climate characteristics based on regionalized relationships. These estimated discharge indices are then used to constrain the IRC calibration. We evaluate both constrained and unconstrained IRC methods over 130 study catchments where observed discharge time series are available but used only for validation in this study. Modelled discharge time series from the constrained IRC methods have median Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.61–0.63, compared with 0.54 from the unconstrained IRC method. Improvement is seen in around 75% of the catchments, with more than 0.2 increase in NSE values in 25% of the catchments. Improvement in the modelled discharges from using regionalized discharge indices is comparable to using observed discharge indices. Using regionalized Qmean yields greater improvement than using regionalized Q95. The constrained IRC methods tend to perform better in wetter catchments than in drier ones. This method can significantly extend rainfall-runoff model calibration in a wider range of catchments, including real ungauged catchments.