A Water Evaluation and Planning-based framework for the long-term prediction of urban water demand and supply

Arfa Saleem,Hasan Arshad Nasir,Imran Mahmood,Asad Waqar Malik,Hessam Sarjoughian

doi:10.1177/0037549720984250

Abstract

Increased usage and non-efficient management of limited resources has created the risk of water resource scarcity. Due to climate change, urbanization, and lack of effective water resource management, countries like Pakistan are facing difficulties coping with the increasing water demand. Rapid urbanization and non-resilient infrastructures are the key barriers in sustainable urban water resource management. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address the challenges of urban water management through effective means. We propose a workflow for the modeling and simulation of sustainable urban water resource management and develop an integrated framework for the evaluation and planning of water resources in a typical urban setting. The proposed framework uses the Water Evaluation and Planning system to evaluate current and future water demand and the supply gap. Our simulation scenarios demonstrate that the demand–supply gap can effectively be dealt with by dynamic resource allocation, in the presence of assumptions, for example, those related to population and demand variation with the change of weather, and thus work as a tool for informed decisions for supply management. In the first scenario, 23% yearly water demand is reduced, while in the second scenario, no unmet demand is observed due to the 21% increase in supply delivered. Similarly, the overall demand is fulfilled through 23% decrease in water demand using water conservation. Demand-side management not only reduces the water usage in demand sites but also helps to save money, and preserve the environment. Our framework coupled with a visualization dashboard deployed in the water resource management department of a metropolitan area can assist in water planning and effective governance.

Highlights

Sustainable water resource management relates to harvesting, managing, and preserving natural resources in an adequate manner in order to sustain life and the ecosystem.[1,2]About 71% of the surface of the Earth is water, out of which 96.5% is oceans and only 3.5% is freshwater.[3]Groundwater, one of the valuable fresh water resources, provides half of all drinking water worldwide[4] and is extracted from aquifers by drilling wells.[5]
It is evident that to cope with the increasing water demand, planning and strategies for the improvement of the vulnerability status of urban water resources are required
An efficient, integrated approach is needed for sustainable water use, which is the focus of our research

Summary

Introduction

Sustainable water resource management relates to harvesting, managing, and preserving natural resources in an adequate manner in order to sustain life and the ecosystem.[1,2]About 71% of the surface of the Earth is water, out of which 96.5% is oceans and only 3.5% is freshwater.[3]Groundwater, one of the valuable fresh water resources, provides half of all drinking water worldwide[4] and is extracted from aquifers by drilling wells.[5]. Consideration of SM scenarios whilst incorporating the effect of CC Implementing both DMS and SM to manage water demand and supply. Our study considers the characteristics of a typical urban area at a microscopic abstraction, having an independent ecosystem with its own water supply sources and demand sites, with available data and access to daily life observational patterns. This provides us with a complete on-the-ground experimental framework to model and analyze a comprehensive microgrid

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