A Voyage to Venus - from Tupi to Liza and Beyond

Abstract

Summary The Upper Cretaceous Liza play offshore Guyana and Suriname is the largest new play to emerge since the pre-salt Carbonate bonanza offshore Brazil, which started with Tupi in 2006 and has so far delivered ∼30bnbbl of discovered resource. In the nine years between Tupi and Liza, more than 250 companies participated in over 350 frontier exploration wells globally, with ∼67% of these targeting oil plays and more than half attempting to open new basins. This came at an estimated drilling cost of ∼$30bn, potentially double that if access costs, seismic data and people is included. 28 of these wells resulted in commercial discoveries, giving a 8% frontier commercial success rate. 17 of the plays opened were primarily oil. The largest are the Nanushuk play on Alaska’s North Slope (Qugruk-3 2013), the Upper Cretaceous play in the Tano Basin (Jubilee, 2007) and the Norphlet play in the US Gulf of Mexico (Appomattox 2010). None of the oil plays have yet proven more than 3bnbbl of discovered resource. Meanwhile, the gas plays opened between Tupi and Liza delivered more than 30bnboe combined dominated by huge gas discoveries in the deepwater of East Africa. The Liza discovery was a game changer for frontier exploration. It opened a new oil play in what appeared to be primarily stratigraphic traps. In Guyana the Stabroek licence holders have reported a discovered resource of ∼11bnboe, and in Suriname a further ∼1.8bnboe is estimated to have been discovered. Attempts to extend the commercial limits of the play fairway have resulted in failures further outboard (in the Canje & Kaieteur licences in Guyana and in the Rasper & Bonboni wells in Suriname), inboard (Carapa 2020) and further to the east (Sloanea 2020). Apart from the Miocene discovery at Hammerhead, other plays tested, such as Mesozoic Carbonates (Ranger), Pliocene Clastics (Joe) and Oligocene Clastics (Jethro) all appear to be non-commercial at present. Following the 2014 oil price crash, companies focused on drilling only their best prospects but as the industry came to terms with the ‘lower for longer’ oil price, companies started to re-load their frontier acreage portfolios. 2019 was the busiest year for frontier exploration drilling since 2014, with 37 frontier wells drilled. ∼30% of these targeted stratigraphic traps, the highest proportion Westwood has recorded. Since Liza there have been 19 potentially commercial discoveries from the 191 frontier play wells drilled. These includes the giant gas plays in the Upper Cretaceous of the MSGBC (Tortue 2015) and the carbonates of the Eastern Mediterranean (Zohr 2015). Until the start of 2022, no material new oil plays had opened with the potential to deliver more than 1bnbbl. 2022 began with two significant frontier oil and associated gas discoveries at Venus and Graff in the Orange Basin, offshore Namibia. Initial indications are positive, but significant appraisal is required and time will tell whether the Orange Basin may be able to compete with offshore Suriname-Guyana.