A Venus in the making? Predictions for JWST observations of the ultracool M-dwarf planet LP 890-9 c

Abstract

ABSTRACT The recently discovered transiting super-Earth LP 890-9 c is potentially one of the best rocky exoplanets for atmospheric characterization. Orbiting an ultracool M-dwarf at the inner edge of the habitable zone, LP 890-9 c offers a new opportunity to study the climate of rocky planets at the inner edge of the habitable zone. We investigate the molecular detectability with simulated JWST transmission spectra for five potential atmospheres of LP 890-9 c. We find that a small three-transit JWST program can infer evidence of ${\rm {H}_{2}\rm {O}}$ (at 3σ confidence) for a full runaway greenhouse scenario. Alternatively, $\rm {CO_{2}}$-dominated atmospheres resembling Venus without high-altitude terminator clouds can be identified with eight transits. However, these predictions could be complicated by the impact of clouds and/or unocculted starspots. Nevertheless, JWST observations of LP 890-9 c could provide critical insights and potentially distinguish between models of rocky planets at the inner edge of the habitable zone.