A vector-host model to assess the impact of superinfection exclusion on vaccination strategies using dengue and yellow fever as case studies

Abstract

Superinfection exclusion is a phenomenon whereby the co-infection of a host with a secondary pathogen is prevented due to a current infection by another closely-related pathogenic strain. We construct a novel vector-host mathematical model for two pathogens that exhibit superinfection exclusion and simultaneously account for vaccination strategies against them. We then derive the conditions under which an endemic disease will prevent the establishment of another through the action of superinfection exclusion and show that vaccination against the endemic strain can enable the previously suppressed strain to invade the population. Through appropriate parameterisation of the model for dengue and yellow fever we find that superinfection exclusion alone is unlikely to explain the absence of yellow fever in many regions where dengue is endemic, and that the rollout of the recently licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is unlikely to enable the establishment of Yellow Fever in regions where it has previously been absent.