Abstract
BackgroundAnti-smoking advertisements are an effective population-based smoking reduction strategy. The Quitline telephone service provides a first point of contact for adults considering quitting. Because of data complexity, the relationship between anti-smoking advertising placement, intensity, and time trends in total call volume is poorly understood. In this study we use a recently developed semi-varying coefficient model to elucidate this relationship.MethodsSemi-varying coefficient models comprise parametric and nonparametric components. The model is fitted to the daily number of calls to Quitline in Victoria, Australia to estimate a nonparametric long-term trend and parametric terms for day-of-the-week effects and to clarify the relationship with target audience rating points (TARPs) for the Quit and nicotine replacement advertising campaigns.ResultsThe number of calls to Quitline increased with the TARP value of both the Quit and other smoking cessation advertisement; the TARP values associated with the Quit program were almost twice as effective. The varying coefficient term was statistically significant for peak periods with little or no advertising.ConclusionsSemi-varying coefficient models are useful for modeling public health data when there is little or no information on other factors related to the at-risk population. These models are well suited to modeling call volume to Quitline, because the varying coefficient allowed the underlying time trend to depend on fixed covariates that also vary with time, thereby explaining more of the variation in the call model.
Highlights
Smoking is the single largest preventable cause of death and disease in Australia
In an effort to reduce smoking prevalence, in June 1997, the Australian federal government collaborated with the Australian States and Territories to launch the National Tobacco Campaign (NTC)
The Quitline telephone helpline service is a population telephone-based program that was promoted as part of the NTC program and provides a first point of contact to assist smokers who wish to quit
Summary
Smoking is the single largest preventable cause of death and disease in Australia. It was estimated that over 19 000 people died from tobacco-related diseases in 1998.1 The total social costs of tobacco use have been estimated at over 21 billion Australian dollars annually—including health care, hospitalizations, loss of productivity and earnings due to premature death, and other direct and indirect costs.[2]. The Quitline telephone helpline service is a population telephone-based program that was promoted as part of the NTC program and provides a first point of contact to assist smokers who wish to quit It is a flexible and cost-effective campaign, and is accessible to a large population.[5] It has been shown to be an effective aid in smoking cessation.[6,7,8]. The model is fitted to the daily number of calls to Quitline in Victoria, Australia to estimate a nonparametric long-term trend and parametric terms for day-of-the-week effects and to clarify the relationship with target audience rating points (TARPs) for the Quit and nicotine replacement advertising campaigns. These models are well suited to modeling call volume to Quitline, because the varying coefficient allowed the underlying time trend to depend on fixed covariates that vary with time, thereby explaining more of the variation in the call model
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