A value transfer GERT network model for carbon fiber industry chain based on input–output table

Abstract

This paper builds an input–output table for carbon fiber industry chain in accordance with input–output theory. In order to get a clear picture of the dynamic input–output process between a variety of sectors involved in the carbon fiber industry chain and the increment of value hereinto, a Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) network model is constructed on the basis of value flow, and an analytical algorithm for the GERT network model is proposed to get the value transfer probability, the amount of value increment, and the fluctuation variance, from which the equivalence value transfer process and results between sectors are obtained. Finally, in the case study part, this paper finds out the value transfer relationship within the carbon fiber industry chain in Jiangsu Province, China based on the empirical data gotten from field investigations, and then some constructive policy-making and investment suggestions are put forward in view of the results and analyses.