A Validation Methodology for Human Behavior Representation Models

Abstract

The Department of Defense (DoD) relies heavily on mathematical models and computer simulations to analyze and acquire new weapon systems. Models and simulations help decision makers understand the differences between systems and provide insights into the implications of weapon system tradeoffs. Given this key role, the credibility of simulations is paramount. For combat models, this is gained through the verification, validation, and accreditation process required of DoD analytical models prior to their use in weapon systems acquisition and other studies. The nature of nondeterministic human behavior makes validation of models of human behavior representation contingent on the judgments of subject matter experts that are routinely acquired using a face validation methodology. In an attempt to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of assessing human behavior representation using experts and the face validation methodology, the authors conducted experiments to identify issues critical to utilizing human experts for the purpose of ascertaining ways to enrich the validation process for models relying on human behavior representation. The research was limited to the behaviors of individuals engaged in close combat in an urban environment. This paper presents the study methodology, data analysis, and recommendations for mitigating attendant problems with validation of human behavior representation models.