A Unified BRB-Based Framework for Real-Time Health Status Prediction in High-Speed Trains

Abstract

The health status of the running gear in high-speed trains changes dynamically with time in a complete life cycle. Running gear systems composed of many coupled components are complex, and health statuses of which are difficult to predict in real time through a traditional health status prediction scheme. Lately, belief rule base (BRB), which is able to combine quantitative information and expert knowledge, has shown excellent expression in modeling complex systems. In the procedure of health status prediction, expert expertise can sufficiently enhance the accuracy and efficiency of this model. Therefore, this paper puts forwards a real-time health status prediction framework based on a multi-layer BRB with priority scheduling strategies for running gears. In the first-layer BRB, a time-series prediction model of multiple module BRB considering complete features is established. In the second-layer model, grey relation analysis (GRA) is employed in priority scheduling strategies of features. The third-layer BRB is used for assessing the health status of running gears by combining the features. In addition, the initial parameters of all module BRB given by experts may not be precise. Accordingly, the initial parameters in the BRB are updated by the recursive algorithm online. Finally, the proposed method is tested on the testing platform in running gears. The results make it clear the proposed method can predict the health status of running gears with much accuracy in real time.