A two‐dimensional ocean model for long‐term climatic simulations: Stability and coupling to atmospheric and sea ice models

Abstract

A two‐dimensional (latitude‐depth) deep ocean model is presented which is coupled to a sea ice model and an Energy Balance Climate Model (EBCM), the latter having land‐sea and surface‐air resolution. The processes which occur in the ocean model are thermohaline overturning driven by the horizontal density gradient, shallow wind‐driven overturning cells, convective overturning, and vertical and horizontal diffusion of heat and salt. The density field is determined from the temperature and salinity fields using a nonlinear equation of state. Mixed layer salinity is affected by evaporation, precipitation, runoff from continents, and sea ice freezing and melting, as well as by advective, convective, and diffusive exchanges with the deep ocean. The ocean model is first tested in an uncoupled mode, in which hemispherically symmetric mixed layer temperature and salinity, or salinity flux, are specified as upper boundary conditions. An experiment performed with previous models is repeated in which a mixed layer salinity perturbation is introduced in the polar half of one hemisphere after switching from a fixed salinity to a fixed salinity flux boundary condition. For small values of the vertical diffusion coefficient KV, the model undergoes self‐sustained oscillations with a period of about 1500 years. With larger values of KV, the model locks into either an asymmetric mode with a single overturning cell spanning both hemispheres, or a symmetric quiescent state with downwelling near the equator, upwelling at high latitudes, and a warm deep ocean (depending on the value of KV). When the ocean model is forced with observed mixed layer temperature and salinity, no oscillations occur. The model successfully simulates the very weak meridional overturning and strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current at the latitudes of the Drake Passage. The coupled EBCM‐deep ocean model displays internal oscillations with a period of 3000 years if the ocean fraction is uniform with latitude and KV and the horizontal diffusion coefficient in the mixed layer are not too large. Globally averaged atmospheric temperature changes of 2 K are driven by oscillations in the heat flux into or out of the deep ocean, with the sudden onset of a heat flux out of the deep ocean associated with the rapid onset of thermohaline overturning after a quiescent period, and the sudden onset of a heat flux into the deep ocean associated with the collapse of thermohaline overturning. When the coupled model is run with prescribed parameters (such as land‐sea fraction and precipitation) varying with latitude based on observations, the model does not oscillate and produces a reasonable deep ocean temperature field but a completely unrealistic salinity field. Resetting the mixed layer salinity to observations on each time step (equivalent to the “flux correction” method used in atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models) is sufficient to give a realistic salinity field throughout the ocean depth, but dramatically alters the flow field and associated heat transport. Although the model is highly idealized, the finding that the maximum perturbation in globally averaged heat flux from the deep ocean to the surface over a 100‐year period is 1.4 W m−2 suggests that effect of continuing greenhouse gas increases, which could result in a heating perturbation of 10 W m−2 by the end of the next century, will swamp possible surface heating perturbations due to changes in oceanic circulation. On the other hand, the extreme sensitivity of the oceanic flow field to variations in precipitation and evaporation suggests that it will not be possible to produce accurate projections of regional climatic change in the near term, if at all.