A two-stage factorial-analysis-based input-output model for virtual-water quantification and metabolic-network identification in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

In this study, a two-stage factorial-analysis-based input-output model (TFA-IOM) is advanced for virtual water assessment, which integrates techniques of factorial analysis (FA) and ecological network analysis (ENA) into input-output model (IOM). TFA-IOM can not only identify the crucial water transaction sectors and the associated integral utility relationships, but also investigate the individual and interactive effects of multiple factors on virtual water metabolic network (VWMN) through measuring water consumptions of different sectors. The developed TFA-IOM is applied to Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia to quantify its virtual water and identify its metabolic network, where agricultural and animal husbandry sectors are the main water consumers. Our major findings are: (i) Kyrgyzstan is a country relying on net virtual water import (reaching up to 3,242 × 106 m3); (ii) WHT (wheat) is the main virtual water supplier (with 349 × 106 m3 virtual water to others); (iii) WHT, VGF (vegetables, fruit, and nuts), PFB (plant-based fibers), CTL (bovine cattle) and RMK (raw milk) are the main sectors affecting the VWMN (e.g., utility relationship and integral virtual water recycling index). From a long-term and sustainable development point view, stimulating Kyrgyzstan’s domestic WHT and RMK productions and improving VGF, PFB and CTL water-use efficiencies can facilitate reducing net virtual water import and promoting the mutualism degree of the national VWMN.