Abstract
Abstract Message propagation in social networks is becoming a popular topic in complex networks. One of the message types in social networks is called broadcast message. It refers to a type of message which has a unique and unknown destination for the publisher, such as ‘lost and found’. Its propagation always has two stages. Due to this feature, rumor propagation model and epidemic propagation model have difficulty in describing this message’s propagation accurately. In this paper, an improved two-stage susceptible–infected–removed model is proposed. We come up with the concept of the first forwarding probability and the second forwarding probability. Another part of our work is figuring out the influence to the successful message transmission chance in each level resulting from multiple reasons, including the topology of the network, the receiving probability, the first stage forwarding probability, the second stage forwarding probability as well as the length of the shortest path between the publisher and the relevant destination. The proposed model has been simulated on real networks and the results proved the model’s effectiveness.
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