A two-phase optimization model for low-sulphur operation of container liners in the context of carbon neutrality

Abstract

The shipping industry is under significant pressure to reduce carbon emissions, and it is crucial to ensure that current efforts to reduce sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions do not result in increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Against the background of carbon neutrality and sulphur emission control area (SECA) policies, this paper proposes a two-phase mathematical model to study the impact of liner low-sulphur compliance operation on carbon emissions. The model addresses four key problems: fleet deployment (phase Ⅰ); compliance option decisions, speed optimization and cargo allocation (phase Ⅱ). To solve these problems, a novel dual population evolutionary algorithm has been designed. The results show that implementing low-sulphur compliance operations for liner companies does not simultaneously reduce both total costs and CO2 emissions, and the rise in the price of low-sulphur oil, the preference for cost decision-making and the expansion of SECAs will increase CO2 emissions; the current sulphur limit policy needs to be adjusted urgently to implement the carbon neutrality goal of the shipping industry; government subsidies can reduce CO2 emissions to some extent, but low-carbon or zero-carbon alternative energy is an inevitable choice for achieving carbon neutrality in the shipping industry.