A tug of war: how voters balance ideology and ethnocentrism

Abstract

ABSTRACT Recent literature has documented the increasing effect ethnocentrism exerts on American political behavior. In most cases, ideology and ethnocentrism point voters in the same direction, but what happens when ideology suggests one candidate and ethnocentrism a different candidate? Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), we analyze the voting behavior of white Americans in recent presidential elections (1992–2016) to better understand what happens when these forces pull in opposite directions. We find that among strong ideologues, the influence of ethnocentrism is minimal. But, for those who do not conceive of themselves in strongly ideological terms, ethnocentrism is a dominant factor. We also find that, while the American public is as ethnocentric today as they were three decades ago, ethnocentrism has recently become more salient in determining vote choice. This provides evidence that the election of Barack Obama – the nation's first Black President – served as a catalyst that activated these dormant racial prejudices. This research has implications for where ethnocentric elite cues can be effective, as well as backfire, and how voters make electoral decisions when their ethnocentric attitudes diverge with their ideology.