Abstract
Bangladesh is one in all the foremost climate vulnerable countries of the world. In recent years, climate change studies over the country get plenty of attention by the researchers and policy makers. A substantial quantity of global climate change studies over the country use climate models to estimate future projections and uncertainties. Maximum temperature, precipitation and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of the 5th Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the available historical data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during the period 1981-2008 in the north-western region of Bangladesh and also the comparison between these two values. It has been found that average maximum temperature shows a positive trend of increase at a rate of 0.29°C and 5.3°C per century respectively, for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. But the rainfall is decreasing at a rate of 8.8 mm and 40.1 mm per century respectively for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. It is seen that July was the maximum monsoon rainfall month and January was the lowest rainfall month. The peak frequency is slightly smaller than 12 months, which indicates that the major events are occurring before ending a year compared to the previous year. According to MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data, future normal temperature on north-western region will be increased at a rate of 1.62°C during the period 2040-2100.
Highlights
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer [1]
It is seen that winter seasonal average maximum temperature was 25.43 ̊C and 31.49 ̊C respectively according to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data where winter seasonal normal rainfall was 10.57 mm and 3.45 mm respectively according to BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data
Considering all seasons, maximum temperature has increased significantly in all seasons except winter which is insignificant over the whole study area for BMD data but for MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data maximum temperature is on increase in the region
Summary
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer [1]. Weather changes in extreme and climate condition have important impacts that square measure the foremost serious challenges to society [2]. Heavy rainfall and seasonal variation square measure the distinctive characteristics that distinguish the climate of Bangladesh from that of other tropical regions [6]. Different climate changes occur in Bangladesh such as river bank erosion, floods, downing ground water level, increasing salinity, drought in rainy season which have been contributing to increase the vulnerability of many regions. Many regions of this country remained outside the field of climate change related actions [7]. Another study shows mean annual temperature of Bangladesh has increased during the period of 1895-1980 at 0.3 ̊C over the past two decades [15] [16]. Associated degree of increasing trend found in both summer and winter temperatures [17]
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