A Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Pattern Using Non-parametric Tests of a Bharuch District, Gujarat, India

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is a factor in climate change, which has negative effects on the environment. Change must occur as much as feasible in order to lessen the effects. Understanding the climatic conditions over years, if not decades, is necessary to analyze the shift. The temperature and rainfall patterns for a certain site are the most frequently researched climate change factors; however, it differs from place to place. As a result, it is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of a changing climate in order to identify effective adaptation strategies, particularly in nations where agriculture dominates the economy. As a result, this study looks at both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in rainfall and temperature in the Gujarat city of Bharuch. Researchers examined data on precipitation and temperature from 1981 to 2020. The difficulties were looked at and analyzed using statistical trend analysis techniques like the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. The annual maximum and minimum temperatures have showed a growing trend, whereas the monsoon's maximum temperature has shown a falling trend, according to a thorough analysis of the statistics over the past 39 years. Throughout the monsoon season, rainfall is gradually increasing (Sen's slope = 0.76). The lowest temperature trend was modestly warming or growing over the study period, while the maximum temperature trend was declining (Sen's slope = − 0.13). The lowest temperature trend analysis result, however, is statistically significant at the 95 percent level of confidence, but the highest temperature trend analysis result is not.