Abstract
Hindered by unceasing disagreements between the European Union and Russia throughout the 2000s, the Energy Charter Process is currently attempting to adapt to the changing market environment and regional political context. Its Modernization, announced in 2010, aims at the Process’ geographical expansion and a comprehensive reassessment of the Energy Charter provisions. The first step towards the restoration of the Process’ eluding leadership in global energy governance resulted in the non-binding International Energy Charter, signed in May 2015 by more than 70 countries from all over the world. Notwithstanding these results, the article questions the advancement of the Modernization beyond rhetorical commitments made at the 2015 International Energy Charter Conference. Interpreting the Modernization in light of the theories of institutional change and informal governance, the article contends that a high level of dissatisfaction among participants, the presence of powerful actors eager to contain certain institutional changes, a high level of regime complexity, a significant gap between causal beliefs and formal structures within the Process, and a high heterogeneity of members’ preferences are likely to challenge the internal consistency of the Process and to invoke its regionalization and, further, legal fragmentation. The findings cast new light on the limitations of multilateralism in energy and discuss why (regional) issue-specific arrangements are arguably the most feasible form of international institutionalization in energy.
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