Abstract
This study investigates the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI). First, for the traffic volume and manufacturing PMI time-series data, unit root stability test and Johansen cointegration test are applied to determine the stability of single sequence and the long-term stable correlation between variables, respectively. Then, a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) is developed to quantify the time-varying correlation between variables. The time-varying parameters of TVP-VAR are estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) theory. Finally, the model is validated using examples from China. In the numeric example, three variables, i.e., expressway car traffic volume, expressway truck traffic volume, and manufacturing PMI, are selected for analysis. Results show that there is a positive interaction between expressway traffic volume (both car and truck) and manufacturing PMI. Express traffic volume slowly promotes the development of manufacturing industry. However, with the reform policy of road freight structure in China, the promotion effect of truck traffic on manufacturing PMI in the past two years has decreased significantly. Moreover, as affected by the China demand-led economic development model in recent years, the stimulus effect of manufacturing PMI on expressway passenger traffic volume has increased year by year. And, while the expressway freight structure remains stable, truck traffic volume is hardly affected by fluctuations in manufacturing PMI. These research results are helpful for policy makers to understand the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing development and finally to improve the expressway management level.
Highlights
Expressway is the critical infrastructure for modern economic and social development and is the important foundation for the construction of transportation modernization [1,2,3]
Over the course of modern macroeconomic analysis, the time-varying vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) is often used to explore the time-varying interaction of economic variables on macroeconomic issues [13]. e TVPVAR model was originated from the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which is a large-scale simultaneous equation model pioneered by Sims in 1980 [14]. e VAR model can simulate the feedback mechanism between variables when analyzing the relationship between variables
In order to analyze the contemporaneous correlation between variables, Blanchard and Watson [15] constructed a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) with structural characteristics
Summary
Expressway is the critical infrastructure for modern economic and social development and is the important foundation for the construction of transportation modernization [1,2,3]. Traffic volume of the section reached 27,000 passenger car unit per day (pcu/d). E fast-developing process of the expressway has played a positive role in promoting the sustained and rapid growth of manufacturing economy [4]. During the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) period in 2020, China’s expressway vehicle tolls were waived until May 5, and under such condition, traffic volume has increased by. The increase in traffic has helped the resumption of work and production in economic recovery period. Existing methods cannot dynamically measure the promotion effect of expressway traffic on manufacturing economy. E mutual relationship between expressway traffic and manufacturing economy needs in-depth study Existing methods cannot dynamically measure the promotion effect of expressway traffic on manufacturing economy. e mutual relationship between expressway traffic and manufacturing economy needs in-depth study
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