Abstract
BackgroundAlthough various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011–2018.MethodsIn this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model.ResultsIt was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI’s were enrolled. Average temperate (°C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI’s (β = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (β = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI’s (P > 0.05).ConclusionResults demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.
Highlights
Various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model
While only less than 10% of all deaths worldwide was attributed to cardiovascular disease at the beginning of the twentieth century, the current prevalence of this disease increased as the passage of the time and the impact of the industrial revolution on the social and economic dimensions of life [4]
Data The data of AMI patients was collected from the Mazandaran Province Heart Center, Iran located at the following coordinates (36.369 N, 52.270 W) because it offers the most comprehensive data of AMI patients in Iran [44]
Summary
Various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011–2018. While only less than 10% of all deaths worldwide was attributed to cardiovascular disease at the beginning of the twentieth century, the current prevalence of this disease increased as the passage of the time and the impact of the industrial revolution on the social and economic dimensions of life [4]. While MI is most prevalent in older adults, it is present in younger people [3] The prevalence of this disease is increasing in developing countries; which means that 82% of the 16 million worldwide deaths related to AMI results in disability due to this disease [4]. The high incidence of AMI in developing countries is associated with less physical activity, weight gain, tobacco use, occupational and mental stress, and low health literacy [7]
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