Abstract
BackgroundGastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used.ResultsMinimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models.ConclusionTime series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation.
Highlights
Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs
A simple quasi-likelihood approach was used to look for evidence of overdispersion [10]
The estimated coefficient is always close to 1 and there does not seem to be any serious evidence of overdispersion in this setting
Summary
Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. Large breed dogs are frequently affected, it can affect many animal species including humans [1]. Causes of GDV may be considered predisposing (increasing the likelihood of disease) or precipitating (triggering the onset of disease). Several predisposing risk factors in dogs have been suggested, including temperament of the dog (excitability), large or giant breed, increased thoracic depth to width ratio, and rapid food consumption [2,3,4]. Many questions related to the actual onset of this life-threatening disease remain unexplained by these risk factors
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