A time series forecasting based multi-criteria methodology for air quality prediction

Abstract

There is a very extensive literature on the design and test of models of environmental pollution, especially in the atmosphere. Current and recent models, however, are focused on explaining the causes and their temporal relationships, but do not explore, in full detail, the performances of pure forecasting models. We consider here three years of data that contain hourly nitrogen oxides concentrations in the air; exposure to high concentrations of these pollutants has been indicated as potential cause of numerous respiratory, circulatory, and even nervous diseases. Nitrogen oxides concentrations are paired with meteorological and vehicle traffic data for each measure. We propose a methodology based on exactness and robustness criteria to compare different pollutant forecasting models and their characteristics. 1DCNN, GRU and LSTM deep learning models, along with Random Forest, Lasso Regression and Support Vector Machines regression models, are analyzed with different window sizes. As a result, our best models offer a 24-hours ahead, very reliable prediction of the concentration of pollutants in the air in the considered area, which can be used to plan, and implement, different kinds of interventions and measures to mitigate the effects on the population.