A Time‐series Approach to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries

Abstract

AbstractThis paper estimates the Feldstein–Horioka equation from 1960–2007 with a panel of 13 OECD countries with the Pedroni method. It is found that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exists in a weaker form. Structural break tests indicated that there was a break in the mid‐1970s or in the early 1990s. These break dates seem to capture the effects of the last decade of the Bretton Woods agreement and the early years of the Maastricht agreement. In the post‐break periods, this relationship is weaker and the saving retention coefficient has declined, implying that capital mobility has increased between these OECD countries. It is likely that these two agreements may have decreased investor uncertainty and improved capital mobility. However, this conclusion should be interpreted cautiously because alternative explanations for the observed correlation between the saving–investment ratios are possible. For example, Byrne et al. (2009) have argued that the observed correlation between investment–saving ratios could be due to common global factors and therefore may not be useful for testing whether capital mobility has decreased or increased.