A time sensitive graph model for conflict resolution with application to international air carbon negotiation

Abstract

The uneven time required for decision making by negotiators can greatly affect the results of international negotiations. A novel time sensitive graph model is developed to analyze international negotiations in which the duration of time is different for negotiators, or called decision makers, to implement each action. In this novel model, the process of negotiation is divided into multiple phases. Decision makers may fail to achieve desired outcomes due to time constraints when approaching the deadline of each stage. Time sensitive stabilities are defined to describe this particular behavior patterns of decision makers. The interrelationships between classical stabilities and time sensitive stabilities are investigated. Propositions are provided to indicate how equilibrium can be affected by the change of action time. This novel methodology is applied to an air carbon negotiation participated by three representative decision makers, the European Union (EU), major developing countries, and the United States (US), under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The time sensitive equilibrium at the end of Baseline Phase explains modification of the requirements for monitoring the CORSIA baseline emissions under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The time sensitive equilibrium achieved after June 2020 suggests that the EU Carbon Trading System for Monitoring Air Carbon Baseline (EU ETS MRV) could be adjusted by the end of the Pilot Phase provided that both developing and non-EU developed countries put the EU under pressure by filing appeals at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) meetings not later than March 2022.