A three‐year lagged correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and winter conditions over the North Pacific and North America

Abstract

A new and significant correlation is found between the amplitude of mean‐winter atmospheric anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean and those over the North Pacific Ocean and western North America three winters later. It is as strong as the previously known and much discussed correlation between the ocean temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño region) and the North Pacific winter atmospheric anomalies. No physical explanation is given at this time for this correlation. A statistical prediction model for mean‐winter conditions is constructed based on the above new and previously known correlations. The prediction model is tested on 36 winters of the past. The model predictions are shown to be of remarkable quality over the North Pacific and western North America.